As a chess player must predict the moves of the enemy, so the most prudent people try to imagine the dangers ahead to collect all what is needed to deal with them.
The “worst case scenario” is an approach which is normally used by the companies to avoid being caught off-guard in case of an emergency situation. In principle it’s about assuming the worst that could happen and setting up a plan to prevent the worst consequences.
Now that Russia is invading Ukraine, panicking the entire planet, what is the “worst case scenario” that we can realistically forecast? And how could we behave?
The most desirable scenario, among those more likely, is that Putin just takes the Ukraine territories of Russian language and culture, while keeping the rest of the country as a buffer state with the West. And our hope is that, at that moment, diplomacy is able to calm down the escalation by accepting a demilitarization of the territories bordering on Russia and thus return to a situation of international balanced and stable relations.
The worst-case scenario would be if Putin decides to annex entirely Ukraine going even further, claiming other territories of the former Soviet Union, such as the Baltic States or other parts of Asia, triggering a similar behavior of China towards Taiwan. And that the West should therefore take military actions by starting an armed conflict of global proportions.
This escalation would drive the huge raw materials price increase which would be difficult to resolve in the short term, together with a collapse in the financial markets with the possible explosion of inflation as it happened in every conflict of the last century and that could reset all the currency savings.
If we consider that, compared to the past, we live in a world that is much more interconnected and perhaps even more fragile, because we are not used to an endemic emergency situation such as a war, a famine or a serious economic shock, we need to urgently change our mentality, like the one that the old philosophers called “metanoia”, to move from a situation of peace to one of war.
Which are the sensible behaviors that we could then implement considering this possibility of a worst-case scenario?
First of all, it would be helpful to move away from any financial activity into a real activity, buying assets with an intrinsic value, such as gold, silver or raw materials in general.
Those who work with certain materials should try to purchase the highest volume possible well in advance to ensure a no stop production. The stock level must be as highest as possible, so that we can ensure the availability in view of years of shortage.
It should be worth to find already places where to move in case the situation degenerates, better to definitely stay in the countryside or near areas where essential goods are produced.
Also, considering to move to countries that have always been neutral to war, such as Switzerland, is not to be underestimated.
Last but not least, the community should not be a negligible aspect. After a time in which mistrust, and often the hostility towards the others led the way, we need to recatch the ability to meet with one another, considering the neighbor as a brother in order to exchange mutual support that could help everyone’s survival.
The three primary objectives to be prepared and ready to face all possible scenarios are to secure our assets, changing our mental approach and initiate cooperation activities and initiatives with other people.
(Original article By Andrea Zoppolato & Duilio Forte)